Assessing the likelihood that Virginia schools will meet the proficiency goals of the No Child Left Behind Act

Report cover for Assessing the likelihood that Virginia schools will meet the proficiency goals of the No Child Left Behind Act

Publication Date: September 2007

 

Overview: This report investigates progress in Virginia public schools in satisfying the requirement of the No Child Left Behind Act of 2001 that every student be proficient in reading and math by 2014. It develops a variable change model that uses observed baseline proficiency and proficiency trends at individual schools during 2002 through 2005 (observed) in order to forecast gains for six student subgroups in elementary, middle, and high schools for 2006 through 2014 (forecast). The study finds that the schools’ observed and forecast performances were in keeping with the No Child Left Behind Act’s intent of substantially increasing proficiency levels. But despite the strong observed and forecasted gains, the findings anticipate that almost none of Virginia’s schools will reach the Act’s goal of 100-percent proficiency in 2014. The study also offers methodological conclusions that could have implications for developing performance measures and standards that accurately reflect progress.

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